Ready for Launch

The Growing Importance of Space Domain Awareness

By Brandon Shelton (Founder & Managing Partner, TFX Capital), Justin Chandler (VP of Government Affairs at ThinkOrbital), and Carrie Marshall (Co-Founder & CEO, Rebel Space)

INTRODUCTION

The small super computers that we all carry around in our pockets enable us to handle everything from communication and banking to shopping and entertainment. But how many people are aware of the role that space-based assets play in these phone-related activities?

As a nation—and as citizens—we depend on satellite networks to facilitate a significant number of transactions and communications made possible via our smartphones. Protecting the integrity of the growing space economy is paramount, as is supporting new innovations that promise to improve the security of this next frontier.

A GALAXY OF INFORMATION AT OUR FINGERTIPS

Our current smartphones have millions of times more memory and hundreds of thousands of times more processing power than the Apollo 11 lunar ship in 1969. However, smart devices and just about everything we depend on daily still rely on space-based assets to complete multiple functions and tasks including:

BANKING

Many of our transactions (at ATMs,  on phones, on the web) rely on space-based timing to ensure swift and secure data exchanges.  Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) networks facilitate banking in rural or remote areas. Global finance also depends on satellites to support international transactions.

NAVIGATION

We all use GPS/GNSS-type services for accurate location and navigation needs. The US and its allies are actively working on “GPS-denied” navigational solutions, given recent lessons from the conflict in Ukraine and elsewhere.  The US military is extremely reliant on GPS-enabled navigation and targeting solutions.  Any adversary will certainly try to counter this advantage.  This reliance requires a new way of designing and operating within the space environment.

COMMUNICATION

Many of our global communication systems are connected via satellites.  Verizon and AT&T announced partnerships with AST SpaceMobile to provide 100% satellite-based communications across the US.  T-Mobile has partnered with SpaceX to leverage StarLink for direct-to-cell space-based coverage.

SECURITY

The US military requires space capabilities to project global military power and deterrence.  Critical functions, including military communications, navigation, targeting, and intelligence gathering, rely on space systems and capabilities.  Additionally, satellites are getting better and better at helping us detect harmful events such as solar flares, asteroids, etc.

AN ECONOMY IN ORBIT

On Earth, it is hard to understand (and see) how many objects are flying in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), an altitude of 1,200 miles or less above Earth.  Satellite lifespans vary depending on how they are constructed to survive, how much fuel they need, and other factors.  The range can be a few months to 15 years.

Most experts predict a continued increase in launches, payloads, etc., as more commercial technologies come online.  While this is exciting, we must also consider the downside risks of a growing space economy.

First, there’s an issue of debris. Consider that there are thousands of components in each satellite, and they house the technology of the time (i.e., 2016 launch, 10yr lifespan) with little-to-no ability to update the firmware. According to the European Space Agency’s estimates, over 170 million objects flying around Earth are 1mm or bigger in size.  This is important because a collision with just a 1mm object could “destroy sub-systems on board a spacecraft.” And there’s more debris to come. Capital, interest, and technology are all marshaling to put more satellites/objects into LEO.  It is estimated that the LEO satellite market will grow from $4B in 2022 to $7B in 2031, according to Business Research Insights.

There’s also a growing security risk. With the International Space Station (ISS) scheduled to be deorbited and decommissioned by 2030, nation-states and companies are racing to create habitats, storage, and other solutions in space. It is estimated that most functioning satellites today are vulnerable to interference or cybersecurity intrusions. Previously designed spacecraft were not intended to operate in a competitive or contested space domain and were designed instead with a focus on longevity. And you don’t need to be an astrophysicist to exploit these vulnerabilities.

Various organizations are starting to coalesce around the threat environment in space; the aerospace industry has coordinated the Space Attack Research & Tactic Analysis (SPARTA) framework to identify and respond to cyber threats. (It’s similar to Tidal Cyber’s MITRE ATT&CK Framework for traditional cybersecurity).  However, the flow of capital, attention, and innovation anywhere—space included—attracts both the best and worst humans.  Opportunistic nation-states, gangs, and other bad actors are and will increasingly exploit vulnerabilities in space.

Despite their domestic and economic troubles, both China and Russia understand that the US projects global power via space. They view it as America’s unprotected Achilles heel. For example, in 2024, Russia allegedly launched a test satellite to assess how best to deploy nuclear weapons in space.  While the threat to human life on Earth would be minimal, such an explosion anywhere in LEO could be devastating in terms of mass destruction of satellites, a dramatic increase in dangerous space debris, and an increase in the radiation environment in the Van Allen radiation belt surrounding the Earth.  A recent Defense One article examined the possibility of China detonating a smaller weapon below LEO, which would also increase radiation for passing satellites and generate an electromagnetic pulse to Earth.

SPACE-BASED SOLUTIONS TAKE OFF

As we look toward 2030, we see that the previous two trends are merging. The volume and speed of new satellites launching into LEO rapidly increase cybersecurity/communications vulnerabilities. What’s more, nuclearized nation-states view space as a new frontier for reducing the military power of the US and the West overall. Fortunately, we’re seeing space experts launch solutions aimed at meeting—and overcoming—these threats.

CYBERSECURITY AND COMMUNICATIONS

All cellular networks in most major countries depend on space-based GPS timing to make their networks function. So even without Starlink or other non-terrestrial network (NTN) solutions, this is an area of potential vulnerability.  We are more dependent on our mobile devices than ever and can only imagine what happens when they all stop working properly for a sustained period of time.  However, Carrie Marshall and her team launched Rebel Space in 2019 to help companies and the USG combat the growing number of threats to satellites and cellular communications.

Carrie’s experience includes expertise in radio frequency tactics and knowledge via the US Air Force. Her career includes stints at Engility, SpaceX, SlingShot, and Rocket Lab.  She’s seen the problem from both offensive and defensive mindsets and government and startup perspectives. Rebel’s Stargazer is a unified platform designed to safeguard critical space assets from electronic and cyber threats through advanced observability, threat detection, and system performance management.

The knowledge of how to hack into satellites is spreading while the cost also drops. That combination of expertise and affordability entices more bad actors to behave poorly.  The US agency NIST published suggested standards in 2023 to bring satellites and ground control stations into the Cybersecurity Framework, given it is a critical infrastructure area.   Recently, the US Government published a comprehensive Executive Order on cybersecurity, which provided much-needed details regarding space: “As cybersecurity threats to space systems increase, these systems and their supporting digital infrastructure must be designed to adapt to evolving cybersecurity threats and operate in contested environments. In light of the pivotal role space systems play in global critical infrastructure and communications resilience, and to further protect space systems and the supporting digital infrastructure vital to our national security, including our economic security, agencies shall take steps to continually verify that Federal space systems have the requisite cybersecurity capabilities through actions including continuous assessments, testing, exercises, and modeling and simulation.”

“At Rebel Space, we’re addressing cyber threats in space by providing an AI-powered manage, detect, and respond platform built specifically to address these challenges.  This platform gives space operators the needed observability into their systems, links, and operational networks critical to identifying vulnerabilities.  It is also critical in identifying emerging cyber threats and providing automated responses to secure space.” – Carrie Marshall, Co-Founder & CEO, Rebel Space.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND SPACE DOMAIN AWARENESS

ThinkOrbital was launched in the Fall of 2022 by founders who understood the need for large infrastructure in space to support research, satellite servicing, human transit, and security needs. The team at ThinkOrbital is pioneering electron beam welding and cutting in space, with two successful launches under their belt. And given the company’s close partnership with Space Force, they have realized that their robotic arm capabilities represent a true, dual-use platform.

Space Domain Awareness (SDA) involves the rapid detection, warning, characterization, attribution, and prediction of threats to national, allied, and commercial space systems.  Currently, the US doesn’t possess the capability to characterize the internal makeup, structure, or materials inside of a space system. Said another way, we can’t “x-ray” a nation-state’s payload in LEO to see if it has a nuclear weapon. ThinkOrbital, in partnership with others, may be able to solve this rapidly.

The development of a close proximity X-ray inspection capability integrated in the ThinkToolkit robotic arm end effector has led to the design and advancement of the ThinkX X-ray spacecraft. This platform can characterize the spacecraft’s internal structures and materials from as far away as 10km.

“The ability to X-ray a spacecraft from safe distances represents the missing piece of Space Domain Awareness. Going forward, space will continue to become more competitive and congested; this capability is critical to our nation’s future security in the space domain.” –Col(R) Justin Chandler, VP of Government Affairs at ThinkOrbital.

THE THREAT LANDSCAPE EXPANDS

Russia, once an adversary and then partner in space, has been increasingly aggressive and overt in its offensive activities. For example, in 2021, Russia fired a “direct-ascent anti-satellite” missile at one of its old satellites, breaking into millions of debris particles. This caused an immediate safety issue in the International Space Station.

In August 2022, just six months after Russia invaded Ukraine, a Russian satellite (“Cosmos 2558”) flew very close to a US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) satellite.  It was close enough to image and/or steal signals intelligence.  The Russian satellite then changed its position to stay somewhat close to the US asset. A few months later, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) announced that a known Russian hacking group had penetrated a satellite communications network for many months before being detected.

While Russia may be more overt in its adversarial activities, China continues to invest in and grow space-based capabilities. “Coupling its growth in space-based ISR with advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and automation, Beijing is developing, across multiple modalities, an ability to rapidly detect targets and relay those target coordinates to its precision weapon systems to close its own kill chains.” (SOURCE:  Space Threat Assessment 2023, Center for Strategic & International Studies, April 2023)

The growth of the space economy opens up exciting opportunities for innovations that make our country safer and the lives of its citizens easier. But innovation is not without risk. Fortunately, startups such as Rebel Space, ThinkOrbital, and Portal Space promise to increase our space domain awareness and protect the U.S.’s position as a leader on Earth and beyond.